Arctic Tipping Points

The project Arctic Tipping Points (ATP) is a large integrated project within the European Union’s 7th framework. ATP builds upon on-going large, integrated projects (THRESHOLDS and DAMOCLES FP6 IPs, and the ARCTOS network). The project will identify the elements of the Arctic marine ecosystem likely to show abrupt changes in response to climate change, and will establish the levels of the corresponding climate drivers inducing regime shift in those tipping elements. In addition, state-of-the-art oceanographic, ecological, fisheries, and economic models will determine the effect of crossing those thresholds for the Arctic marine ecosystems, and the associated risks and opportunities for economic activities dependent on the marine ecosystem of the European Arctic.

The Beijer institute takes active part in work package 6, “Socio-economic opportunities and risks”, which aims to:  (1) Test the performance of different harvest control rules in fisheries under varying environmental conditions. (2) Model optimal oil and gas exploitation strategies under uncertain prices and weather conditions. (3) Examine how institutions and policies for the management of living marine resources, tourism and petroleum development can cope with very rapid change in ecosystems driven by climate change.

More specifically Beijer’s work will aim at 1) building and analyzing the global dynamics of a small integrated theoretical model of interactions between the arctic ecosystem and economic activities like fisheries; 2) comparing results with similar studies for other kinds of ecosystems to search for generalities.

Read more about the project:

Upcoming events:

Arctic Frontiers Conference, January 2011, Tromsö, Norway